Economic Forecasts

http://myweb.rollins.edu/wseyfried/forecast.htm

  Surv. of Prof Forecasters (Nov) Wells Fargo (Dec) WSJ (Dec) Fed (Dec)

economic growth, 2014

2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8-3.2%

economic growth, 2015

2.8% 3% 2.9% 3.0-3.4%

unemployment (end of 2014)

6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.3-6.6%

unemployment (end of 2015)

6.4% (average) 6.2% 6% 5.8-6.1%

inflation, 2014

1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4-1.6%

inflation, 2015

1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5-2.0%

link to my blog

Recent Forecasts

Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (2014 annual forecast; latest monthly forecast, Nov 2013; Dec 20-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 1.4% in 2013Q4 and 2014Q1; 2.4% in 2014 and 3% in 2015; PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2014, 2.2% in 2015; core CPI inflation = 1.9% in 2014, 2.1% in 2015; unemployment rate = 6.6% by the end of 2014 and 6.2% at end of 2015; Fed starts to raise the federal funds rate in Summer 2015
Fed Forecast as of Dec 2013: economic growth = 2.8-3.2% in 2014, 3-3.4% in 2015 and 2.5-3.2% in 2016; long-run economic growth = 2.2-2.4% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 6.3-6.6% in 2014, 5.8-6.1% in 2015, 5.3%-5.8% in 2016 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 5.8%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.4 to 1.6% (core = 1.4-1.6%) in 2014, 1.5-2% (core = 1.6-2%) in 2015 and 1.7-2% in 2016 (core = 1.8-2%)
Economic forecasting survey, Dec 2013 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.7% in 2013Q4, 2.5% in 2014Q1; 2.7% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015; unemployment = 6.5% at end of 2014, 6% at end of 2015; inflation = 2% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015; expect interest rate hike in early 2015; Fed begins to taper QE3 by Jan 2014, end of QE3 in late 2014
Livingston Survey (latest survey - Dec 12, 2013): economic growth = 2.5% in first half of 2014, 2.8% in second half of 2014; unemployment rate = 7% in June 2014, 6.7% in Dec 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.8% for 2014 and 2.1% in 2015; long-term economic growth = 2.6%, inflation averages 2.3% over the next decade
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey Nov 2013): economic growth = 1.8% in 2013Q4, 2.5% in 2014Q1; 2.6% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016; inflation (PCE)=1.9% in 2014 and 2015 (core PCE inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015); unemployment rate = 7.2% in 2013Q4. 6.8% in 2014Q4; average unemployment rate = 6.4% in 2015, 6% in 2016
Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - Nov 21, 2013): economic growth = 2.7% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015; inflation (CPI) = 1.5% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015 (core inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015); unemployment rate averages 6.7% in 2014 and declines to 6% by end of 2015
OECD (Nov 2013): economic growth = 2.1% in 2013Q4, 3% in 2014Q1; 2.9% in 2014, 3.4% in 2015; inflation = 1.6% in 2014, 1.8% in 2015; unemployment rate = 6.7% at end of 2014, 6.1% at end of 2015; Fed begins to raise the federal funds rate in 2015Q2
Quarterly economic survey (USA Today - Oct 2013): economic growth = 1.9% in 2013Q3, 2.1% in 2013Q4; 3% in 2014Q4; unemployment rate = 7.2% by end of 2013. 6.7% by end of 2014; Fed begins to taper in March 2014, ends QE in 2014Q4; increses the federal funds rate in 2015
IMF (Sep): US economic growth = 1.5% in 2013, 2.5% in 2014
OMB (July 2013 - see page 6-7): economic growth = 2.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015; unemployment (Q4) = 7.3% in 2013, 6.8% in 2014, 6.3% in 2015; inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 2.2% in 2014-2015; natural rate of unemployment = 5.4%; see pdf page 9 for comparison with other forecasts
CBO (Feb 5): economic growth = 1.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 (baseline assumes the implementation of spending cuts); unemployment rate = 8% at end of 2013, 7.6% at end of 2014, 6.8% at end of 2015; PCE inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014; growth in potential GDP = 2.3% for 2019-2023; potential GDP grows by 1.8% in 2013, about 2% in 2014-2015, 2.3-2.4% afterwards; natural rate of unemployment = 6%, but begins to decline very slowly in 2014

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan AreaFlorida

 

last updated: 12/27/2013

Views: 80

Tags: ECONOMY, JOBS, RECRUITING

Comment

You need to be a member of RecruitingBlogs to add comments!

Join RecruitingBlogs

Subscribe

Sponsored Video

Marketing Partners

Upcoming Webinar

Popular Recruiting Content

2. Innovative Engineering Recruitment

Added by Rebecca Baines on September 16, 2014

5. After Resignation

Added by Sian Taylor on September 17, 2014

RecruitingBlogs on Twitter

Recruiting Videos

  • Add Videos
  • View All

© 2014   Created by RecruitingBlogs.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service

scroll to the top