I read several blog entries here that suggest that the worst is over, and perhaps it is, but the business has gone through some perhaps fundamental changes and it may be a long time until we discover "business as usual," if ever.
Yes, large numbers of recruiters have disappeared - the inevitable consequence that is Darwinian and healthy when the strong survive and the weak disappear there is more food left for the strong - but there is also less job creation, less growth, less demand, more supply, and perhaps most alarmingly, less budget for recruiting.
The budget issue is interesting as we see clients and prospects pushing fees down and down and down - and it reflects a basic problem with pricing in our industry and a lack of perception of value added. To be a strong survivor and really come out of this year/decade stronger, we will need to be rational in terms of pricing and then actually add real value - shuffling resumes is no longer an added value attribute.
The idea that retained services should cost more than contingency is one interesting debate. Why take 100% risk, in contingency search, and charge less? Why not charge less for the sure thing, and charge more for at risk? That is the way the world usually functions - risk and reward go hand in hand.
The idea that fees must rise with salary is another issue that needs to be tackled. Does it really cost you more to find the $120,000 person than the $100,000 person?
More than anything, our business needs to adopt fair pricing that allows for profits, and then we need to raise the bar on value add. The idea is NOT to send in every person who can fog a mirror (one prospect I recently met bragged about his team interviewing 29 people for a job without yet making an offer - brag about that? What a waste of time that was for the client); a good recruiter should present you with 4 or 5 great alternatives, and that should be the end of it.
I think the business is going to see continued challenges as it evolves. The deep hole we are in may not disappear as we ring in the new year - beware - it is going to be several years of hard work to keep our heads above water. The strong will survive, and when it gets there, we will prosper, but this may only be the bottom of the fifth - unless we call the game for rain there is still a lot of play left.