US Online Job Market declines 2.4% in November 2012

Online labor demand in the United States began its descent toward the end of the year. Employers posted 2.4% fewer job openings in November than in October. Employers struggled to maintain a decent level of labor demand this year. Cracks began to show in June when the market lost 3.0% of its volume. From there it was a slow slide towards election day. During the four weeks before the election posting volume increased indicating more optimism on the employer side (see weekly chart below). Consumer confidence is on the rise as reported by The Conference Board and Bloomberg which may increase demand for products and services.

The next challenge for jobs is straight ahead. The resolution of the fiscal cliff with a solid compromise by the end of this year would send a positive message which would support more optimism among consumers and employers. A compromise would help lift the job market next year.

United States Job Openings (Online Postings) and Unemployment Rate
January 2007 – November 2012

Weekly Analysis (available every Tuesday at www.skillproof.com/blog)

The slowing labor market reversed during the weeks before the election. In October employers kept increasing their job postings. With the election over we are now likely to head straight down until early January. Depending on a financial compromise in Washington we will see either rising labor demand in the first quarter or an extension of the past four weeks.

United States Job Openings (Online Postings)
Weekly, 2011-2012

Legend for week-over-week change of labor demand:

Job Market Growth Rate
flat 0%
slow 0.1% – 0.5%
moderate 0.6% – 1.5%
fast > 1.5%

Methodology: SkillPROOF surveys the inventories of job openings at direct employers. Job openings are counted and verified every 24 hours. All data sources have been verified for timely removal of filled or closed positions. No data from job boards or search firms is included.
For this report SkillPROOF estimates the counts of job openings. Estimates are calculated directly from SkillPROOF’s actual daily counts of job openings. As part of its calculations, SkillPROOF uses data and findings from reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (http://www.bls.gov).

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Comment by Henning Seip on December 5, 2012 at 1:49pm

Update: Private sector employment increased by 118,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report®. www.adpemploymentreport.com.

Comment by Henning Seip on December 7, 2012 at 8:45am

BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment
rate edged down to 7.7 percent. www.bls.gov

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